ashcrash9
Zack Lorenzen
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01.29.25 Ashcrash's 2025 NASCAR Predictions01.15.25 15th Sputversary
12.22.24 Ashcrash's 2024 WALL O TEXT 10.29.24 2024 Releases That Need Love
08.07.24 Every Chevelle Song Ranked06.25.24 3000 Ratings
12.16.23 Ashcrash 2023 List 06.23.23 Ashcrash Did (Another) EP
03.12.23 Every Periphery Song Ranked12.17.22 Ashcrash's 2022 List
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Ashcrash's 2025 NASCAR Predictions

You read that correctly, and let the easy fodder flow. Your pal Ash, despite it all, is a massive NASCAR fan. Below I've spieled about this oft-derided form of motorsport completely irrelevant to the average SputnikMusic user, and in doing so professed some relatively informed opinions about this year's slate of drivers for the spare few who might skim it anyway. “ash, this is a music website” - INDEED, so here’s the catch: I have attached to each driver blurb a release whose artist name in some way reflects their whole shtick, be it by moniker alone, reputation, or deep lore. I have not heard any of them. Until a week ago when I began planning this, I wasn’t even aware most of them existed. Whenever one of these drivers wins a race in 2025 (and they’ll all have a chance. 36 full-time competitors, 36 races. chef’s kiss), I will spin the listed release and chime in with some thoughts, and at season's end, I'll rank the ones I was obliged to check out and compare how well my predictions stacked up to the results. From mid-February to early November, I’ll ride or die on this bit - probably die. Capisci? LET’S RUN ‘EM DOWN
36Be Still, Cody
Bumfuck Nowhere


CODY WARE - #51 - RICK WARE RACING
The only reason Cody Ware has a NASCAR ride is because his dad owns the slowest team in the Cup Series and someone’s gotta drive that junk, right? He has done nothing laudable in his career and the biggest headline he’s managed to date is getting suspended for the bulk of the 2023 season due to a domestic assault charge. His unceremonious return threatens to uproot the modest strides his family’s team has made in his absence. If he comes anywhere except last in the standings among full-time drivers, I’d be stunned.
35Trophy Hunt
The Branches On Either Side


TY DILLON - #10 - KAULIG RACING
Over a decade removed from his last feeder series win, Ty Dillon’s career is basically on life support. His grandfather owns Richard Childress Racing, one of Kaulig’s affiliates, and he piggybacked into this position to help the teams network, but you can’t expect much to come of it behind the wheel: his prior ability (being inconspicuous everywhere) has backslid to true mediocrity, and Kaulig’s touted trophy-hunting ambitions will remain in dire straits with a veritable field filler like Ty roundng out their lineup.
34Johnny Hunter
Want


JOHN HUNTER NEMECHEK - #42 - LEGACY MOTOR CLUB
JHN has proven his mettle in NASCAR’s feeder series, but his return to the Cup level occured when there was a drought of quality rides up for grabs. He landed at Jimmie Johnson’s Legacy Motor Club, but the team opted to switch manufacturers and create their own technical playbook from scratch just as he got there, a move that might pan out years down the line but has robbed them of weekly contention for the time being. Add the pressure of trying to overperform in slow equipment, and JHN wrecked often last year. Even if he learns from those mistakes, the team doesn’t have the raw speed to capitalize on safer driving.
33Late Model Jesus
Late Model Jesus


JOSH BERRY - #21 - WOOD BROTHERS RACING
Three years of perennial underachiever Harrison Burton piloting the Wood Brothers’ famed #21 car means I have no proper read on this team’s capabilities anymore; a fluke win last summer was their sole highlight of the NextGen era, and swapping the kid out for Josh Berry, a middle-aged, Dale Jr.-endorsed short track ace, seems like a lateral move at best; Berry’s repertoire should prime him for a few sneaky highlights on short tracks, but his 2024 rookie campaign was disproprtionately marred by reckless accidents and botched setups. He and his new team could well outshine this ranking, but I wouldn’t put money on their joint recovery going as smoothly as planned.
32Theatre of Enfant Terrible
When The Daylight's Gone...


RILEY HERBST - #35 - 23XI RACING
Nepotism is largely the name of the game down here in the trenches, and by any measure, Riley Herbst is not ready for the level of competition he’ll face week in and week out in the Cup Series. The supposed hot shot has been in top notch feeder rides for the better part of five years, and he’s only just begun to figure out how to close races in winning position. Compound that slow learning curve with inconsistent results, a team currently embroiled in a lawsuit against the sanctioning body, and a whole new model of car to get used to, and the odds are stacked against this rookie. 23XI’s raw speed should buoy him over his Worst in Class competition, but not by much.
31Regain The Legacy
Collapse Of Ideals


ERIK JONES - #43 - LEGACY MOTOR CLUB
Legacy’s other driver is no stranger to being overlooked and underappreciated, and at this point Erik Jones seems resigned to stick out the team’s ground-up growth. To his credit, the driver has nearly a decade of Cup level experience under his belt, and he’s better than his young teammate at accepting what the car will give him and letting others’ attrition improve his overall performance. Still, the 2025 field looks to be about as competitive as it’s ever been; Legacy’s lack of speed remains a mighty hurdle to clear, and unless they hit on something innovative overnight, Jones’ ceiling will be dictated by the underwhelming equipment he’s operating.
30Hyakka
One Hundred Limited Mosquitoes


RICKY STENHOUSE JR. - #47 - HYAK MOTORSPORTS
Rebranding is in season for Stenhouse and Hyak, who just lost a sizable contingent of their investors and corporate sponsors. I expect that fallout to trickle down to those remaining with the team sooner rather than later, and even on Stenhouse’s best days, he’s prone to slipping up. I’ve gotta believe he’ll remain a threat for superspeedway wins - you can’t take the desperation out of this man - but everywhere else the schedule goes, his performance should be considered a wild card, good for an above-average effort every couple of months, but out to lunch more often than they’d like to admit.
29Excuse Me, Who Are You?
Double Bind


ZANE SMITH - #38 - FRONT ROW MOTORSPORTS
Zane Smith’s Cup journey almost fizzled out as soon as it had begun; a year on loan to Spire Motorsports told a tale of two seasons, one where the then-rookie was handily the most inconsequential guy on the track each week, and one where he began to acclimate to his new surroundings. Returning to his feeder home at Front Row should spell a comparitively quick jump for a guy whose primary goal is getting a better feel for the car on a week to week basis. I don’t believe Smith will ever be a top caliber talent, but he should be able to manage a respectable midpack career, and this year should be another stepping stone to that status.
28Pickle Darling
Cosmonaut


TODD GILLILAND - #34 - FRONT ROW MOTORSPORTS
Unlike Smith and his fellow incoming teammate, Noah Gragson, Todd Gilliland is the only face returning to Front Row’s Cup program from 2024. Despite playing the role of stabilizer, he’s also the youngest wannabe star of their trio. I fear that may let the team write him off as they focus their attentions on two prospects with higher expectations, but Gilliland his asserted that he can scrap midpack with the best of them, and scrap away he must: every point matters in this portion of the list, and I surmise he’ll capitalize on them all a smidge less tenaciously than his competition.
27Spoiled Brats
Rich Kid / Laundrymat Brat


AUSTIN DILLON - #3 - RICHARD CHILDRESS RACING
Contrary to the slander frequently hurled upon him, the elder Dillon brother does have talent, but virtually all of his upset wins have been the result of lucky timing or flagrant mischief. RCR’s slow decline in the NextGen era is impossible to ignore, and Childress’ blind favoritism towards grandson numero uno increasingly frames his stubborn team as a relic among fresh blood. Save for one month last summer, it’s been a number of years since they’ve had sufficient speed to be considered a playoff threat. Dillon’s too experienced to backslide much worse than he already has, and one has to assume they’ve learned a thing or two from how they’ve conducted races lately, but I also can’t envision an overnight turnaround towards relevance.
26Custard
We Have The Technology


COLE CUSTER - #41 - HAAS FACTORY TEAM
Hello, F1 fans, and yes, it’s that same Haas, back and smaller than it’s been in quite some time. Declining powerhouse Stewart-Haas Racing splintered over the offseason, selling three of their four charters and downsizing their staff with favorite son Cole Custer stepping back up from the feeder series to pilot their rebranded entry. Brain drain won’t be a complete non-issue in 2025, but I’m interested to see how the team’s new alliance with RFK (no, not the political figure RFK. same acronym, different origin) will pan out, as well as how Custer will perform as a team’s sole focus instead of their shoehorned-in also-ran. My guess? Ultimately about the same. Having a year of NextGen experience to fall back on should help level his playing field amongst the returning series regulars, if barely.
25J.J. Fad
Not Just a Fad


JUSTIN HALEY - #7 - SPIRE MOTORSPORTS
You need a few things to be great at motorsports, chief among them wealth, adaptability, guts, and luck. Haley possesses bits of all four, but up to this point, luck has pulled disproportionate weight, allowing him to persevere for more feeder wins (and even perhaps the least intentional Cup victory ever) than money, flexibility, or gusto could buy. This year, his scrappiness will be put to the test: Spire has revamped their lineup, and they’re honest underdogs instead of total afterthoughts now. While Haley has the support of championship-caliber crew chief Rodney Childers on his side heading into 2025, so did Josh Berry last year, and look how far that got them (spoiler: not very). Was it a chemistry issue? Is Rodney washed? We’ll find out soon enough - but honestly, I don’t expect Haley to run leaps and bounds better than he had at Kaulig or Ware, especially with feistier teammates overshadowing his quiet consistency.
24Modified Man
Modifications: Set 2


RYAN PREECE - #60 - RFK RACING
First, RFK here stands for Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, the three owners involved with the effort, and second, the team’s expansion to three (debatably four) cars in 2025 will have to come at a cost somewhere, and I doubt they’d let those growing pains affect their two guys with proven playoff-worthy résumés. Preece, as legendary as he is in the regional Modifieds Series scene, has never clicked with Cup cars, and while I think this year could represent a chance at modest improvement, I don’t think he’ll ever be a threat for a win without something going terribly awry for the rest of the field. Still, better cars = better speed = better average running position, at least in theory. With any luck, not running with the squirrels out back should help him tone down his bloated DNF rates.
23Taking Back Sunday
Where You Want To Be


A.J. ALLMENDINGER - #16 - KAULIG RACING
Kaulig may be swirling down the toilet year after year, but A.J.’s road course prowess remains their trump card when all else fails. He’ll have serious competition in that regard from incoming international ringer Shane van Gisbergen, but all A.J. needs to do is rack up those top 10s on tracks where his road racing career disposes him to have an advantage. Those few key venues, combined with his long-running experience and undervalued oval skill, should benefit him in the overall standings, even if a win eludes him before playoff season.
22Nausea (USA-CA)
Psychological Conflict


NOAH GRAGSON - #4 - FRONT ROW MOTORSPORTS
This might as well be Noah Gragson’s make-or-break year; he was too dominant in the feeder series to be written off as a bust entirely, but his mental fortitude hasn’t seemed resilient enough to handle longer races, and the rides available to him at the Cup level haven’t exactly been topshelf options. If last year’s substantial improvements still only accumulated into a 24th-place result, he’ll need a bit more than luck on his side to outdo that, but every year has its modest breakout, and better runs on plate tracks (Front Row’s bread and butter as of late) will likely give him that boost he needs on paper. Can he sustain it to earn a better ride? Hard to say, but if his 2025 is a flop, the kid would be better off re-assessing his trajectory.
21Pitbull
Trackhouse


DANIEL SUAREZ - #99 - TRACKHOUSE RACING
As evidenced by this album choice (Pitbull is an investor in this race team), Trackhouse has successfully branded itself with a certifiably Mr. Worldwide ethos, boasting a loud, international roster of drivers who rake in merch assets even if they aren’t always a force to be reckoned with on the track. Suarez still has a chip on his shoulder from being passed on by top organizations while he was first starting out, but even in greener pastures, he’s inconsistent from week to week and rarely a threat to win. The clincher? With Shane van Gisbergen stepping into Trackhouse’s expended stable, Suarez won’t be able to stay in the spotlight, and he routinely fares worse than his teammates when the attention isn’t all on him. I’ve got a gut feeling he’ll be the biggest disappointment among A- and B-lister teams in 2025.
20Zealotry
The Last Witness


MICHAEL MCDOWELL - #71 - SPIRE MOTORSPORTS
If Michael McDowell remains at Spire for years to come, he has the experience required to elevate their driver program, but I reckon he’ll narrowly miss getting a win or two this year and that will ultimately keep him in the effective “honorable mentions” tier of the standings. Increasingly solid aptitude at a variety of track types has helped him bloom both as a mentor figure and as a driver in his own right, but it’s all for nought unless you’re at the tippity top of the points or nab a win before autumn.
19Babyface Assassins
Success Is Revenge


CARSON HOCEVAR - #77 - SPIRE MOTORSPORTS
If McDowell is the recently recruited veteran that will help fill Spire’s notebooks, Carson Hocevar is their kid of the future. It was clear from his feeder series antics that he had the raw talent to earn a top ride, if only he could scrounge up the restraint to not treat his competitors like lifeless NPCs ripe for the wrecking. His 2024 rookie campaign wasn’t devoid of controversy, but his fuck-ups also weren’t as egregious as expected, and more importantly, he had serious pace, elevating the #77 team’s spot in the standings by a full eleven ranks compared to when Ty Dillon putzed the shitbox around in 2023. Perhaps he’ll slump while two newcomers join Spire’s ranks, but I personally doubt it. As long as he has the will to ruffle feathers, he’ll have attention, and in his case, attention begets speed.
18Soundtrack (Anime)
Naruto Soundtrack 2


AUSTIN CINDRIC - #2 - PENSKE RACING
Penske’s prodigal son (well, his company president’s, that is. whatever) is actually pretty good behind the wheel of a car! That said, the team’s game overall seems to be building strength slowly and peaking during playoff time when it matters most. That’s all well and good provided their drivers win something before cutoff season, but Austin Cindric was one lucky break away from not doing that in 2024, and the only other time he’s had comprable, race-winning pace is on superspeedways, cathedrals of chaos where the playing field is leveled for everyone, not him alone. If he doesn’t make the playoffs via wins, he’ll be too far outside the realm of feasibility to sneak in on points alone, and that will relegate him to the high teens of the standings.
17Basshunter
LOL


CHASE BRISCOE - #19 - JOE GIBBS RACING
Every year, a top caliber team you wouldn’t expect to miss the playoffs misses the playoffs. It’s clockwork, and it’s also clockwork that the #19 car has found itself in more of those winless nail-biter moments lately than any other supposed frontrunner. A driver change this year means nought: I’d take Martin Truex Jr. past his prime over a young and reckless Chase Briscoe any day, and I also can’t see Briscoe’s judgment lapse-prone, goody-two-shoes act meshing well with crew chief James Small’s crass demeanor and passive strategizing. Briscoe has a future at JGR should he rein in his mistakes, but this year’s lineup doesn’t bode well for immediate chemistry, and they'll need immediate chemistry to outpace the best of the best. Or maybe I’m talking out my ass and Briscoe will go on a tear and win like 6 races before fall - anyone’s guess, really. I’m erring on the side of disappointment, though.
16KIWI
Poltergeist


SHANE VAN GISBERGEN - #88 - TRACKHOUSE RACING
Most of these rankings are relatively arbitrary, but due to NASCAR’s current championship format, coming 16th in points all but universally indicates that the driver in question won a race before the playoffs started then sucked too much to do anything more with the complementary points boost. In 2025, that title seems destined for Shane van Gisbergen, a Kiwi road course expert who took the league by storm with a one-off street course win two years ago - so much so that he opted to leave Supercars and come do this turning left business full-time. He almost won again last year, and all he needs is one road win to earn a playoff spot. Once he’s going head to head with the best of our generation on ovals, though (that is, 9 of the playoffs’ 10 weeks), his opportunities to dazzle vanish.
15Rowdy
Rowdy


KYLE BUSCH - #8 - RICHARD CHILDRESS RACING
Bold prediction time: the broadcasting booth replays the iconic “20 years of frustration” call as Kyle Busch wins this year’s Daytona 500, finally earning the crown jewel that’s eluded him throughout his illustrious career. As a caveat, it’ll be the only win he gets all year. I still have minimal faith that RCR’s equipment is worthy of weekly showmanship, and experience only gets a driver so far when the team supporting them can’t carry their weight. If a better opportunity becomes available in 2026, expect Busch to try jumping ship, too, and if those cards fall into place before year’s end, expect tensions between he and Childress to fray team morale even further.
14None More Black
This Is Satire


BUBBA WALLACE - #23 - 23XI RACING
The truth that Bubba’s detractors and defenders alike don’t want to admit is that the guy’s never going to rise above the trappings of being an upper-midpack driver with a low win rate. Case in point (and lawsuit aside), I don’t foresee Bubba winning in 2025, at least not before the playoffs begin, but if someone’s gonna sneak into the playoffs on points alone, he’s proven he can do it before and he was only a few too many fluke winners away from doing it again in 2024. I suspect 2025 will be kinder if only because we won’t have quite the same degree of Bullshittery in the midfield. What he does with that berth is also written on the wall: some solid runs, a couple bad ones, and a lot of respectable mid. Should suffice for roughly 14th in points.
13Horseface
Jääkautiset


BRAD KESELOWSKI - #6 - RFK RACING
Brad Keselowski’s role as owner-driver looks selfless on paper: while he’s been directly responsible for bringing the Roush organization back from the verge of complete irrelevence, his results haven’t been as flashy as those of his longest-tenured teammate, and the duties of managing a third car may sap his focus of the undivided attention you need to be successful in this sport. A win fell in his lap last year, but I’m not sure another will grace him in 2025. I’ve seen starker declines, but for better and worse, Brad is past his prime. Elite talent will nonetheless carry him into the playoffs, but I predict he won’t be gunning for wins anywhere near as often as he had been a handful of years ago, let alone these last few.
12Watermelon
Demo


ROSS CHASTAIN - #1 - TRACKHOUSE RACING
Ross Chastain isn’t Trackhouse’s earliest or latest recruit, but in terms of sheer ability, the Melon Man has the highest odds of carrying the team late into playoff contention. Still, Trackhouse took a notable step back over the last two seasons; Chastain’s initial year with them was peppered with controversy and he excelled under that pressure. Since then, the stakes have been lower and the performance hasn’t been as gutsy, either. Patience may help him bring the car home in one piece more often than not, but until the team allows his aggression to resurface, his ceiling seems lower than it first appeared. Assuming he and his Don’t Give a Fuck tour don’t circle around again, 12th-ish in points with a win or two seems like a safe bet.
11Don't Mess With Texas
Don't Mess With Texas


CHRIS BUESCHER - #17 - RFK RACING
While Chris Buescher’s lone win last year came too late to usher him into the playoffs, his many narrow loses beforehand signal continued growth, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to be one of the midfield’s sneakiest underdogs. Whether or not he finds himself in victory lane, he’ll battle fiercely around the playoff bubble, and I say he squeezes in this year with performance solid enough to flirt with the top 10 of the standings. He won’t vastly outperform teammate/car owner Brad K, but he’s better in clutch situations than the other guys in the RFK stable. That should give him an edge among them and about half his playoff competition.
10Depression at Denny's
on my way


DENNY HAMLIN - #11 - JOE GIBBS RACING
Championship-deprived Denny Hamlin’s 2024 started out dazzlingly strong - “is this the year?” we all wondered. But then he did the usual Denny things; points penalties, dropping the ball when it mattered most, and making an enemy out of the league as per usual. Losing crew chief Chris Gabehart primes 2025 to be the provocateur’s biggest crapshoot in years - while I wouldn’t really be surprised if he regains the finesse he lacked towards the end of 2024, I’m skeptical he has the big picture framed at all anymore. Every legend of this sport runs out of oomph eventually, and with yet another final 4 appearance passing him by, the frustration might be unshakable. He’s too iconic to not run up front for most of the year, but the days of Hamlin biting as loud as he barks are nearly behind us.
9Bread and Circuits
Bread and Circuits


JOEY LOGANO - #22 - PENSKE RACING
If you’d told me that Joey Logano would win the 2024 championship when we were halfway through last year and he was sitting 15th in points, I’d have laughed you out of the room. The Omen returned, though. Get this: the sport’s snickering, two-faced giant always finds a way to place himself in championship contention during even-numbered years, especially when the statistics don’t justify his late-season ascension. On the other hand, odd-numbered years have undersold his ability; he usually performs better overall, then dips a bit in the standings during crunchtime. None of that should track - it feels like pseudo-science - but it does, and I guess the two streaks even out. I may be a hater, but Logano’s too good a driver to shrug off entirely, freak math be damned.
8A Hawk And A Hacksaw
The Way The Wind Blows


ALEX BOWMAN - #48 - HENDRICK MOTORSPORTS
Befitting of his reputation as Hendrick’s fourth-best driver, Alex Bowman will once again finish fourth among the four rides in the team’s stable. It’s not that he’s bad per se; his teammates are just that little bit better. Bowman fluking into victory lane more often than truly deserving it underlies his ability to go the extra mile when the pressure’s on him, and facing competition from Hendrick and JR Motorsports’ feeder drivers will push him to show off a little more often this year. Whether or not that grants him trophies and lets him keep his seat in 2026, time will tell. 2025 should still go smooth enough to result in a top 10 points effort.
7Who's Your Favorite Son, God?
Out of Body Diva


TY GIBBS - #54 - JOE GIBBS RACING
Not all descendants of race team owners are created equal. Love him or hate him, Ty Gibbs is the real deal, and year three is where we typically see promising talent snag their first win(s) and establish themselves as career championship threats. So it’s written for Gibbs, who’s already impressed enough to prove his expedited rise to the Cup Series was at no loss to the team, even if on paper it seems like cloying, insidious nepotism at work. Gibbs has a bit of playoff experience under his belt now, too - and getting valuable playoff points throughout the year will allow him to chug further along than his first foot-dipping last fall did. The future is now.
6The Georgia Satellites
In The Land Of Salvation And Sin


CHASE ELLIOTT - #9 - HENDRICK MOTORSPORTS
The present is also now, and said present has dictated Chase Elliott can drive as well as the best of ‘em at the expense of seemingly ever having superlative speed. Watch him rack up safe, simple top 10s all year - it’ll carry him farther than you’d expect - but the days where steadiness could yield a championship are over, and short of defying the odds and becoming Hendrick’s breakout star again, I see no reason to believe he’ll outperform either Kyle Larson or William Byron inside the team shop, let alone against the rest of the field.
5High Side Driver
High Side Driver


TYLER REDDICK - #45 - 23XI RACING
Full disclosure: I became a casual Tyler Reddick fan after he chastised Trump in 2020, and I became a true devotee once I properly appreciated his racecraft. Since arriving at 23XI, his indisputable talent has only become sharper and wiser, but because I am nothing if not a neurotic self-doubter, I’m lowering my expectations for my favorite driver coming out of a standout 2024 title bid. Fact of the matter is it only takes one ill-timed move to uproot a championship run, and I can sense one lurking in the portent that is ~everything else going on in 2025~, especially with key track Homestead-Miami removed from the penultimate playoff round. Not that it’s all doom and gloom - Reddick’s still a generational talent whose career is young and promising. We’ll share greater times in years to come, and with any luck, we’ll still enjoy plenty of highlights this year, too.
4Computer Dreams
Computer Dreams


WILLIAM BYRON - #24 - HENDRICK MOTORSPORTS
William Byron lives by the pattern: show peak speed early, simmer down through the summer, and then elevate through the playoffs to coast to a finale appearance. Who am I to doubt the data? Someone’s gotta sneak into the finale on points, and why not Byron? He’s done it two years in a row and shows no sign of shaking up a strategy that’s worked so far. Here’s the kicker: pointing your way into the championship race means you have less time to prep for it than the (up to) three competitors who punched their ticket earlier, and true to form, he’s been an also-ran in the finale, too. He might earn a title eventually, but it won’t be this year.
3Dirty Three
Whatever You Love, You Are


CHRISTOPHER BELL - #20 - JOE GIBBS RACING
Toyotas are often an afterthought at Phoenix, the current championship race venue, and that alone sullies my expectations for Christopher Bell’s inevitable title run. I thought 2024 might be the year they break the curse, but no, Bell was the class of the field in the spring race there, uncharacteristically blew his Round of 8 mojo, and didn’t have the same speed upon returning to Phoenix in the fall. That’s life - and this will be the start of a rebirth, shedding the embarrassment of his penalized Martinsville wall-ride and earning his reputation back the proper way: kicking ass for months on end only to wind up third, behind the flashiest driver in the sport and a guy who raised his stakes at the right time.
2Cult Favorite
For Madmen Only


KYLE LARSON - #5 - HENDRICK MOTORSPORTS
Mouthing off against Max Verstappen and subsequently blowing a championship that should’ve been his for the taking (though that’s more the format’s fault than his) might have blemished Kyle Larson’s 2024, but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s an all-time great behind the wheel of a race car, and he has the backing of the best overall team in the Cup Series garage. At this point, I can’t even fathom a “down” year for the guy - it’d probably still involve a few wins and a deep playoff run, and I have no reason to suspect any slight downgrade would manifest now, save for perhaps an injury when he attempts the Indy 500-Coke 600 double this May. Unfortunately for him, champions in this sport aren’t crowned by mere cumulative effort, and while getting to the finale should be a cakewalk, he’ll have one obstacle to overcome.
1The Velvet Teen
Out of the Fierce Parade


RYAN BLANEY - #12 - PENSKE RACING
NASCAR ends their season - and crowns their yearly champion - by slowly eliminating drivers from eligibility based on performance until only four remain viable in the final race on the calendar. At that point, it’s a “best finisher wins it all” ordeal, and the venue for that event happens to be somewhere Penske has dominated since the dawn of the NextGen era in 2022. They’ve won all three championships there with the current model of car, and until the series either relocates its finale or alters the race package in some way (tire options coming this year? relevance TBD), I have no choice but to suspect that if a Penske driver makes it to the finale, they'll win the title. I’ll put my stake in the ground now: Ryan Blaney will glide between 5th and 10th in standings for most of the year, get hot late when he needs to advance through the playoffs, and ultimately win his second Cup championship, nearly identical to how he did it in 2023.
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