Sowing: Sowing's Week 1 Picks

Sowing 09.04.24	Going against your Superbowl pick in Week 1 is top-notch predicting.
Manatea 09.04.24	“Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both notch more than 10 receptions, proving that there's room for both of them and terrifying every opponent on their 2024 calendar.” I’m in love with this take
anat 09.04.24	that’s a tasty take, but a shame that if it’s correct we’re getting a cowboys SB
Demon of the Fall 09.04.24	Cool. Some of these predictions aren't particularly "BOLD" but then we can't have crazy things happening in every game. The fact most of these are close games and most teams score a 'fair' number of points is perhaps the boldest prediction. I think a couple will score lower. Pats are an easy choice and I wouldn't be shocked if the Titans / Bears and Falcons / Steelers all struggle to hit 20 in those match ups. They feel like 17-13 sort of games a couple of upset calls tho. I wouldn't be surprised by the Cards over the Bills
Sowing 09.04.24	Biggest potential blowout is probably Cincy-NE, but most of these games are between somewhat evenly matched teams. I think blowouts become easier to predict as the season goes on.
Hawks 09.04.24	I will be back in this thread once TJ Watt sacks Cousins 4 times and Minkah gets the game sealing INT after Naj and Jaylen combine for 200 rushing yards. I will be back!!! Also if Payton Wilson plays meaningful snaps theres no chance Pitts even breaks 60 yards.
AlexKzillion 09.04.24	ngl i'm sorta expecting a steelers loss this weekend. just feels like the offense is gonna be roughhh out the gate
Hawks 09.04.24	I think people put too much stock in preseason and its not gonna be that bad lol. They didn't run anything that they're gonna use in season. Russ isn't his old self but I think he can still ball at a reasonably high level and he doesn't have to do it all by himself. Pickens will be a top 5 receiver this year. This is how he won in Seattle. Strong run game and top notch defense. Steelers have that. But I'm also a fanboy so we shall see lol. It can't be worse than Pickett/Trubisky at least and they still won 10 games. I just tend to think Tomlin does his best work when the Steelers are supposedly not gonna be any good.
AlexKzillion 09.04.24	oline injuries got me scared for even the run game tho, i hope i'm wrong
Hawks 09.04.24	Eh Seamalo will be back next week and Fautanu is supposedly gonna play this week. Frazier is an absolute stud at center and James Daniels is one of the most underrated guards in the league. Now if they'd move Broderick to left tackle they'll be all set.
Titan 09.04.24	Chubbless Browns taking down Dallas?
DominionMM1 09.04.24	not all that difficult to imagine honestly. browns defense seems legit and ford is a capable starter.
BallsToTheWall 09.04.24	I don’t expect much but a dub or two over the division rivals is enough for me.
AlexKzillion 09.04.24	yeah at home cleveland typically feasts on defense... though i could also even more easily see dallas's defense taking advantage of watson. should be a really good game and also notably brady's first game in the booth.
Futures 09.04.24	i would love to see micah parsons absolutely drill the rapist at qb in the head
tectactoe 09.04.24	Already with the Lions disrespect smdh
AlexKzillion 09.04.24	lmao we better be getting a lions/jags super bowl to justify all the defensiveness on here these last few months
Demon of the Fall 09.04.24	Steelers defence will keep them in games even if the O struggles. And I imagine they’ll be able to run the ball. I don’t think Wilson needs to be spectacular for them them to hit .500 beyond that? Yeah, that’s up for debate. Tough division too. I just doubt they’ll be bottom feeders
Demon of the Fall 09.04.24	Lions vs Texans Superbowl would be so wholesome but you just know it won’t happen as much as many people would like it to
tectactoe 09.04.24	Lions making the Super Bowl is not only a legitimate possibility but a highly likely one, from an odds perspective. Idk why people are acting so shocked. They were 30 minutes away from making the Super Bowl last year and by all accounts have improved their team this year aside from a few of the (already older) O lineman getting...another year older. Shored up that defensive secondary, though, and that was surely our biggest downfall last year.
Futures 09.04.24	i don't blame people doubting jared goof. he is a system qb who can't play in bad weather and will fold when the chips are down.
Sowing 09.04.24	I don't doubt the Lions, I have them going to the divisional round and wouldn't be surprised if they went further. My reasoning in not having them return to the NFC Championship or going to the SB is basically that the NFL is unpredictable.
Demon of the Fall 09.05.24	yeah, that and the fact no-one can stop the Chiefs re the TEXANS making the Superbowl, that was more my point the Lions have a real shot, I was in no way claiming they don't
tectactoe 09.05.24	>i don't blame people doubting jared goof. he is a system qb who can't play in bad weather and will fold when the chips are down. Sure, when he has a team and coach that doesn't respect him or play to his strengths.
WretchedCacophony 09.05.24	this crap is back up again great
BallsToTheWall 09.05.24	Betting on the Bills to win it all.
AlexKzillion 09.05.24	literally nobody doubts the lions at this point there's just other good teams in the league too lmao. i don't think sowing predicting the lions to lose by a fg in week 1 to a team they beat by just 1 point in the playoffs last year is disrespectful nor unrealistic
Scheumke 09.05.24	So newbee to American Football here. Got interested by the superbowl (the only thing the dutch media ever pay attention to) and I'm looking to get into this sport, because it felt there's a lot going on, but I have no idea where to start. I kinda get the rules but am completely new to the lingo (which there seems to be a lot of) and looking for a good place to start understanding the intricacies of the sport. I tried watching a CBS predictions show but the first 10 minutes where so full of terms I didn't understand that I had no clue what I was watching. Help me out sputters, point me to a nice place to start enjoying this shit.
AlexKzillion 09.05.24	@scheumke i think by far the easiest way to learn the sport is to buy any old copy of madden and start playing. would venture to say that's prob how all of us learned way back when if not that, i'd say to just tune into as much games as you can and listen closely to the commentary
Demon of the Fall 09.05.24	In theory my perspective should be helpful (as a fellow 'European') but my friends knew more than me, so they helped explain some of the intricacies as it was happening (guessing you may not have this luxury). I would imagine any mainstream coverage is fairly user friendly. Broadcasts in the U.K usually are. In fact, much like a lot of sports coverage they tend to assume the viewer knows jack shit about what they're seeing (which was initially helpful, lol).
Scheumke 09.05.24	Aight I think I have a version of Madden that was free at some point with PS plus. Might give that a go between my Black Myth Wukong playthrough to get into it, thanks Alex I hadn't even thought of that. I know my personal way to get more into it is to start following / rooting for a specific team, but I have no idea which one yet haha. Guess I'll see which one wins my heart in the first few weeks.
Demon of the Fall 09.05.24	Madden doesn't strike me as all that realistic sometimes, haha... but yeah I guess that's a good shout as we did play a fair bit of it back in those early years, so it'll help with certain aspects of the sport and unless you have a family connection or specific reason to, hold off on choosing your team. The 49ers 'chose me' and I don't really 'feel it' despite those links existing (having said that L.A. didn't have a team at the time and that arguably makes more sense, Tampa was a solid option too as I have links to both coasts... ah well!) Oh, and no I didn't learn anything of the sport from them, all from U.K. friends / TV etc.
Demon of the Fall 09.05.24	and this is the official NFL thread Scheumke: https://www.sputnikmusic.com/album.php?reviewid=85271&page=194#lastpost
Scheumke 09.05.24	Aight tnx guys!
Hawks 09.05.24	Root for Pittsburgh we have bridges and rivers and shit.
vult 09.05.24	i'm terrified of Tyreek Hill vs JAX but Miami is dealing with a lot of injury so hopefully the Jags can squeak out a victory. Miami's secondary is pretty shit outside of Ramsey so hopefully BTJ and Kirk can ball the fuck out.
AlexKzillion 09.05.24	"Madden doesn't strike me as all that realistic sometimes, haha... but yeah I guess that's a good shout as we did play a fair bit of it back in those early years, so it'll help with certain aspects of the sport" yeah the new maddens especially are pretty arcade-esque... but i think its a great starting point to learn the rules, plays, scoring etc. as instead of passively watching you're actively a part of the game and are forced to learn things for yourself in real situations. tbh i couldn't imagine trying to learn the schematics of football from scratch without the help of madden, merely seeing all the plays visualized before every play goes so far in learning the game
BallsToTheWall 09.05.24	Love you Hawks but fuck Pitt.
Hawks 09.05.24	Ballsy don't be bitter that your team blows. ;]]
BallsToTheWall 09.05.24	That’s pretty fair.
Hawks 09.05.24	HAHAHAHAHA ILY!!!
Scheumke 09.05.24	So I'm gonna ask all the noob questions here, feel free to laugh at me. When listening to a preview/predictions all I'm hearing is teams reaching 7/8/9 wins at least in a 17 game season. Are the matchups that predetermined that you can actually say that with any sort of confidence? The Dutch football league has teams getting maybe 6 wins in a 34 game season and upsets happen pretty regularly, is that not the case in the NFL? Also, are there consistently top-tier and consistently mediocre/low-tier teams? Iirc I heard somewhere that it rotates much more each year then in other sports.
Hawks 09.05.24	The answer to your last question is yes lol. Upsets happen every single week whether it be regular season or postseason. These are all guesses.
vult 09.05.24	I just think that there is such a massive mid-tier of teams that it’s hard to really determine accuracy of record. Also with a 17 game season there are only so many unique records a team can have
trilo 09.05.24	predetermined feels a bit disingenuous. there's just a slew of middling teams and it can be difficult to break out of that because of the draft. but every year there are a few teams that barely muster like 3 wins and this year will be no different. as for general parity i'd def say the NFL has the most or close to it due to the salary cap + reverse order draft. injuries also play a part in that i think. historically you def have good and bad franchises but even the best go through slumps. like the patriots were trash for a long time, had a ~20 year span where they were amazing due drafting the GOAT QB, and now they're back in the dumpster. the chiefs have been on a tear thanks to mahomes but it wasn't that long ago they sucked. every year there are under and over performers but as a quick n dirty way of judging a team you simply look at the QB. there's also a lot to be said about a 17 game season with BO1 playoffs. in other sports things tend to average out, but in the NFL a single upset can send the best team home
Scheumke 09.05.24	I like the idea that there are a lot of mid teams that can actually be competitive. Makes for a much more interesting season than 3 topteams vying for the title while the rest are playing for scraps. Thanks for the info chaps!
AlexKzillion 09.05.24	"Also, are there consistently top-tier and consistently mediocre/low-tier teams? Iirc I heard somewhere that it rotates much more each year then in other sports." all that's really set in stone is that as along as patrick mahomes and andy reid are together the chiefs will be continue to be the evil empire. every other team (especially those without "elite" qbs) are always going through peaks and valleys season-to-season... and even then the chiefs were the first team to win -back-to-back sbs in 20 years.
Scheumke 09.06.24	For real, by a toe? That was a very entertaining opening game. Thank fuck dutch ESPN broadcasts it with American commentary instead of dutch. I think I've found a new obsession lol.
Demon of the Fall 09.06.24	Glad you enjoyed it. I was pretty hyped for the season starting but my main anticipation is for redzone Sunday. If you're unfamiliar, it means you can essentially watch all the games on during the timeslot at once (not every play, but all the good bits!) They cut to plays either as they happen or show replays just afterwards. Unique (I think) to the sport as it wouldn't really work elsewhere Presumably you can get that where you are?
tectactoe 09.06.24	Wow NFL S104:E1 was really entertaining. Wonder what the writers have in store for us next week.
vult 09.06.24	nflbite (dot) com has all the games and redzone stream if you are interested. have to navigate through popup ads but it has been my source for watching football for the last 3-4 years - streams are stable, HD and reliable
Scheumke 09.06.24	It seems our ESPN has a redzone broadcast on Sunday so I'll def check that out! Might be an overload of info though, I kinda enjoyed watching a full game getting to know some of the players names etc.
vult 09.06.24	Redzone is at its strongest during the 4:00pm EST window of games because there’s at max 4 going on (usually 3) and it’s a bit easier to watch drives. The 1pm window is chaos.
BallsToTheWall 09.09.24	Cancel the Panthers god damnit.
Sowing 09.09.24	Agreed :-( wtf
BallsToTheWall 09.09.24	Two straight years I knew they were toast 1 game in. Unreal! Absolutely unreal!
Sowing 09.09.24	It's sad
Titan 09.09.24	yo Sowing dude - if your picks were an MLB batting average, you'd be getting paid millions bro!
Sowing 09.09.24	Hahaha. I actually felt good about these picks, especially when a lot of my upsets seemed like they were coming to fruition. Oh well. @Balls: to add injury to insult, Derrick Brown likely lost for the season.
BallsToTheWall 09.09.24	I Saw that. All That bullshit regarding Burns to resign Brown, god This bus hurts brother.
BallsToTheWall 09.09.24	Can tepper Pay Steph Curry another 60 million to qb?
tectactoe 09.09.24	DETROIT LIONS BABY FORWARD DOWN THE FIELD LETS FUCKING GOOOOOOOO
Scheumke 09.12.24	Was it just a week 1 picks list Sowing or are you going to do one every week? Curious to see what your predictions are going forward!
Demon of the Fall 09.12.24	he does one every week (usually) "I kinda enjoyed watching a full game getting to know some of the players names etc." yeah, now I think about it the early slot on redzone is hella chaotic and if you're not familiar it does seem a bit much. I just don't like the stop-start nature of watching one game / adverts + the risk of the 'main live game' being a damp squib. Good for fantasy football reasons too. I also usually record a couple of the games during primetime slots and watch them back / cut out all the breaks to shorten it significantly (unless it's a potentially drab Thurs nighter like Panthers vs Giants or something, lol) The playoffs is when I get to see games in full more regularly, but then I still have to tape a few because of the time differences (you will too, I imagine)
AlexKzillion 09.12.24	for anyone who doesn't know... if you really really want to watch EVERY game you can get nfl+ for like $20 a month which allows you to watch condensed 30-40min replays (its pretty much every play but with all the dead space cut out)
vult 09.12.24	yeah but then you cant listen to romo and collinsworth gargle mahomes and josh allen's balls between every play
Scheumke 09.13.24	Our ESPN broadcasts Redzone and one game fully on a different channel during the different timeslots. I'm already seeing that those aren't nessecarily the most interesting games though. I can rewatch everything broadcasted for 7 days so that's nice. Joined a fantasy football game and I'm noticing that does a lot with understanding more of the tactics game.