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|Sowing's Week 5 Picks|
Went an admirable 12-3 with my picks last week, and I'm off to a blistering 44-18 start to the year. The trend shall continue this week! As always, list is digs.
Deep Dark South
Buccaneers 23, Bears 21 - Foles vs. Brady, round 2. Ding Ding! Let the fight begin. As amusing as it will be to see those two square off again, this game will be determined by which Chicago defense arrives. If the dominant one that rushes the passer and generates turnovers shows up, the Bears can win this. However, they've been rather inconsistent on that side of the ball, and Tampa's offense is clicking. Give me the Bucs in a heart-stopping thriller.
Rams 27, Football Team 17 - Given all of the offseason adversity and talent exodus from the roster, Washington has actually played at a respectable level early this season. Their ball-control offense and strong defensive approach is designed to grind out ugly wins, but as we saw against Baltimore last week, when the opposing offensive firepower is immense, they simply can't keep up. This is another one of those cases, although Jared Goff isn't going to take off on a 50 yard TD run any time soon, so this won't be quite as bad of a blowout for the Football Team to endure.
Phoenix: Flames Are Dew Upon My Skin
Bills 30, Titans 22 - It's a shame that the Titans' undefeated start has been interrupted by a COVID-19 outbreak within their organization. Hopefully, it won't impact their momentum coming into this matchup with the 4-0 Bills. Lost in Buffalo's undefeated start has been the shaky play of what was supposed to be a dominant defense. With Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, and Stefon Diggs clicking on all levels, they have not needed to rely on their defense like they have in '18 and '19, but they will need to be in top form against Tennessee's bulldozing rush attack and the sneakily strong play of Ryan Tannehill. I foresee a game that goes back and forth, but the Bills - riding high on a breakthrough season by Josh Allen - will pull ahead in the 4th quarter for good.
Steelers 26, Eagles 13 - The Eagles got a nice upset victory against the 49ers, and now reside atop the NFC East with a record of 1-2-1. Division champs that they currently are, I do not foresee that good fortune rolling into a road matchup against a well-rested Steelers team with arguably the scariest pass rush in all of football. This feels like a messy game with multiple turnovers (mostly on the Philly side). The Steelers will manhandle their way to an easy win and a 4-0 start.
Cardinals 24, Jets 20 - Arizona came out of the 2020 gate like a darkhorse playoff candidate, but after faltering in consecutive losses to Detroit and Carolina, they suddenly feel like the same old Cardinals. On the other hand we have the 0-4 Jets, who have to win a game eventually, right? My mind is whispering "upset pick", but Adam Gase is such a terrible coach and the Cardinals are too talented to succumb to three straight losses, so I'll roll with the Cardinals to win a closer-than-anticipated game and get back above .500. Gase will be fired by Monday afternoon.
When I Die, Will I Get Better?
Chiefs 42, Raiders 27 - The Chiefs are an absolute machine that can't be stopped. The Raiders' defense puts up very little resistance against even average offenses, so this has the makings of a shootout. Even though Las Vegas can put up points too, they're not the kind of offense that routinely drops 28 points in a quarter on their opponents - so, Mahomes and co. will roll to 5-0 in what is sure to be a fantasy owner's wet dream.
The New OK
Texans 24, Jaguars 21 - The Bill O'Brien era has concluded, and Romeo Crennel steps in as interim HC. There's something in sports that I'll call the motivation factor, and players under new coaching tend to ball out in an effort to solidify their spot within the new scheme. I think we'll see a little bit of that from Houston, and it won't take much to push them above Jacksonville. This will be a tight divisional game no doubt, but Houston will notch its first win of the year at home against a hapless Jags squad.
Ravens 31, Bengals 20 - Don't count out this Cincy team - they have the talent, youth, and leadership (how good has Burrow been?) to contend with almost anyone. Unfortunately, the Ravens are one of maybe four teams in the NFL that I simply refuse to even entertain the thought of them defeating. The Bengals will make things interesting at some point in this game, but Baltimore will eventually run away with the W just like they do in every game where they're not playing the Chiefs.
Phanerozoic II: Mesozoic | Cenozoic
Falcons 28, Panthers 20 - Listen, Carolina is my lifelong favorite team and I'm more psyched than anyone about their expectation-defying 2-2 start. I truly hope I eat my words here, but Atlanta - a team far better than its 0-4 record suggests - is due for a win...and Carolina - a feisty young team that has outperformed its actual talent - is due to come down to Earth again. This is a gut pick, it just feels written in the cosmos. Atlanta goes up big early, and finally holds on in the 4th quarter against a Carolina offense that isn't designed for shootouts.
49ers 21, Dolphins 20 - There was chatter about Tua making his NFL debut, but Miami has named Fitzpatrick the starter again this week. This benefits Miami in this particular matchup, where veteran savvy will be needed to navigate a speedy and talented San Fran defense. The 49ers are coming off an upset loss to Philly, and Kittle absolutely balled out coming off of his injury designation, so I think San Francisco will get back on track here. Fitzpatrick will find a way to make this a nail-biter, though.
Summits of Despondency
Cowboys 38, Giants 24 - The Cowboys defense has surrendered an average of 42 points per game in their last three matchups, which is historically bad. It's a good thing, then, that they draw the Giants' anemic offense in Week 5, which averages 11.75 ppg through their first four matches. New York will probably ball out to 20+ points thanks to the Cowboys' generous D, but Dallas ~should~ score more than that and improve to 2-3, which just might put them back atop the horrid NFC East.
No Good Left To Give
Browns 24, Colts 21 - Who would have thought that these teams would have a combined 6-2 record a quarter of the way through the 2020 regular season? The Colts' defense ranks near the top of the league, while the Browns just dropped 49 points on Dallas in an upset win. This could go either way, but I like the Browns' moxie right now. I'll roll the dice and trust Cleveland (*cringes*).
Long Violent History
POSTPONED DUE TO COVID -- Patriots 24, Broncos 21 - If this game gets played (more members of the Patriots organization have tested positive for coronavirus), then I think it will be a grind-it-out matchup between two teams that lean heavy on the run. Philip Lindsay returns for Denver, adding a complementary gut punch to Melvin Gordon's finesse running style. The Patriots, who may or may not have Newton back on the field, will probably rush the ball a ton of times regardless because that's their new post-Brady mantra. I trust Belichick to find a way against a banged up Denver team.
Seahawks 39, Vikings 21 - Just how good has Russell Wilson been? Good enough that I refuse to bet against him, especially against a disappointing Vikings team that rests at 1-3. The Vikings do seem to be improving after getting their first win of the season and with the emergence of Justin Jefferson, but that's not enough to put them in the same ball park as Seattle, who are looking more like a Superbowl contender every week.
So Glad You Exist
Saints 27, Chargers 20 - The Saints are back at .500, which is hardly where anyone expected them to be a quarter of the way through the season. The Chargers look good with Justin Herbert under center, but he's still very raw and developing his skills as a rookie QB. I like Brees and co. to win this and get to 3-2, where they can slowly put themselves back in position to contend with Tampa for the NFC South.
|Browns move to 4-1 with a win. Discuss plz. |
|baker mayfield seems like he'd be a fun guy to have a beer with |
football is less fun when your team is decimated by injuries
|fun fact: drew brees has never lost to the chargers|
|"baker mayfield seems like he'd be a fun guy to have a beer with"|
He reminds me of Charlie Day from It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia
|I would wager money you could reference always sunny around baker and he'd shoot another one back at you|
|"Ravens 31, Bengals 20"|
As a die-hard Ravens fan, this is a trap game. The Ravens let Cincy roll over them so much its stupid. And they don't have Andy Dalton anymore.
|Yep, and whether or not it's apparent, my 11-point margin of victory was intended as a compliment to Cincy and a red flag to Baltimore. The Ravens should win by like 30 points, but I have a tingling sense that this will end up being a battle. Still, I can't picture them actually doing it and pulling off the upset. Could certainly be closer than anticipated though.|
|I think Jets pull off an upset because it's just such a Jets thing to do and Cardinals are shaky|
|agreed. I didn't have the balls to pick it though, and plus I need Kyler Murray to ball out for my fantasy team|
|was happy to see Foles beat Brady again|
|8-4 heading into the last couple games, not bad all things considered. Miami destroying SF was wild.|
|It was --chef's kiss-- as a Rams fan|
|excited for bills titans tonight|
|feel so bad for dak. also daniel jones is a bum.|
|Yeah Dak was on pace to break the single season passing yards record... fucking shame man. Dude is so good but will continue to be under appreciated.|
|Also can we talk about had badly the Chargers are cursed lmaoo you cannot make up how unlucky that team is in close games|