Will the swine flu come back in the fall WITH A VENGENCE?

[Castillo]

I have a friend who says that in the fall the swine flu will come back 100X more powerful than it is now and kill thousands, if not millions of people. However, this guy also believes that the Illuminati government invented swine flu so that Obama could declare martial law and completely control the U.S., so I'm not sure what to believe.

Thoughts?

[andyneverstoppingmachine]

100x seems like a pretty arbitrary amount

get a real source

[jaredong]

i heard it wasnt a qualitative change but a quantitative change. As in, swine flu would not be "stronger" per say but would seem to be more prevalent. When it originally hit (hmmm who noes when, seems like forever ago) it was nearing the end of the flu season with people going outdoors. So until fall, its spread would be slowed. Hence, it is only in the fall with it being cold and such, that swine flu would have a chance to truly spread in earnest.

That being said, I am not too worried. Governments know this and would ramp up health guidelines by then. Moreover, there is already a preliminary vaccine out last month.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31269066/ns/health-swine_flu/

On Obama... maybe its a coincidence but... they said there would only be a black president when pigs fly. Oh noes! Swine flu! He's clearly part of the Illuminati.

[Elitist Douche Bag]

the free masons did it

[Light Flantastic]

this is pretty much what spanish flu did so **** you faggots dismissing our impending doom

[Jude]

I think I have it right now and it's no big deal it's just like a cold

[Light Flantastic]

well that sounds like scientific evidence to me

[Frankie-C!]

I think I have it too

yeah it's no big deal but my **** kinda itches sometimes

[McP3000]

swine flu was blown out of proportion and its dead just like bacon is when i eat it

[Aaron]

Probably an idea, Americans, to look to the otherside of the world where it's already Winter, and see if it's happened.

Hint: It hasn't.

[handoman]

my cousins in mexico say that the swine flu wont be coming back

[Light Flantastic]

i dont think thats how it works

this thread is terrible people please source your dumb opinions

[Aaron]

Are you replying to me?

[Light Flantastic]

ya and all the other people who posted anecdotal stuff

[Aaron]

Well the threadstarter was implying that the cold weather of autumn and winter will affect the mortality rates from swine flu, and I highlighted that parts of the world have already been through a period of swine flu in winter months, and haven't had a marked increase in deaths. Australia has had 11 deaths currently out of a population of 21 million [with all areas of the country having reported exposures], and they've all been indigenous or elderly, so I guess we can draw the conclusion that weather isn't a huge factor, unless we see in summer a decrease in deaths from swine flu.

[Light Flantastic]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anecdotal_evidence

[wartomods]

the swine flu thing seems a bit farfetched, but the illuminati issue is tottaly feasible

[wartomods]

this is pretty much what spanish flu did so **** you large bundle of stickss dismissing our impending doom

My grand grand parents died with spanish flu, so stfu and respect.

[Aaron]

Are you saying that inferring a possibility based on statistical evidence is wrong?

this is pretty much what spanish flu did so **** you large bundle of stickss dismissing our impending doom

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anecdotal_evidence

[Light Flantastic]

My grand grand parents died with spanish flu, so stfu and respect.
how is saying swine flu could do the same thing disrespectful i mean not that i care that just doesnt make any sense

Are you saying that inferring a possibility based on statistical evidence is wrong?
im saying making simplistic conclusions based on non scientific evidence is wrong

[Aaron]

Pot. Kettle. Black.

[Light Flantastic]

no not really but nice try

[Aaron]

this is pretty much what spanish flu did so **** you large bundle of stickss dismissing our impending doom
impending doom, srs

[Light Flantastic]

ya i said it could do that you said it definitely wouldnt because of some stupid theory about the weather

[Aaron]

It's a pretty commonly held idea that people become more sick in winter due to change in temperatures, but idk.

[wartomods]

thanks for your empathy FLANtastic PUDDING

[Light Flantastic]

It's a pretty commonly held idea that people become more sick in winter due to change in temperatures, but idk.

well thats a nice story but pretty irrelevant to you just making up science bro

[Aaron]

I am a scientist.

[wartomods]

hE IS

[Aaron]

Science: I do it.

[andyneverstoppingmachine]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anecdotal_evidence

but that applies to instances in which trends over time can be observed

this isn't really one of those, swine flu hasn't been around that long

[Light Flantastic]

but that applies to instances in which trends over time can be observed

no it doesnt

or it does obviously but not exclusively

[jaredong]

i think its pretty scientific

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season

During winter periods, its much easier to transmit the flu because people are closer together. Canada's flu season is from november to april i think. Clinics and community centers start churning out the flu shots because there's routinely a increase number of flu cases during those months.

Moreover, in terms of severity of symptoms, perhaps it cant be said if you have swine flu or not. What could be suggested is that *most* people who contract swine flu dont have major complications (such as death)

http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/alert-alerte/swine-porcine/surveillance-eng.php
Total Cases: 8883
Total Hospitalization:663
Total Deaths: 29

I would personally wash my hands, get 8 hours of sleep and eat my vegetables if i was worried. That way, if i do get infected, its highly unlikely i'd die. Hence, Im not too worried.

[Light Flantastic]

The 1918 flu pandemic (commonly referred to as the Spanish flu) was an influenza pandemic that spread to nearly every part of the world. It was caused by an unusually virulent and deadly Influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1.

[...]

The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was much deadlier than the first. During the first wave, which began in early March, the epidemic resembled typical flu epidemics. Those at the most risk were the sick and elderly, and younger, healthier people recovered easily.


ty and ty

[andyneverstoppingmachine]

The 1918 flu pandemic (commonly referred to as the Spanish flu) was an influenza pandemic that spread to nearly every part of the world. It was caused by an unusually virulent and deadly Influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1.

[...]

The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was much deadlier than the first. During the first wave, which began in early March, the epidemic resembled typical flu epidemics. Those at the most risk were the sick and elderly, and younger, healthier people recovered easily.


ty and ty

anecdotal evidence

[Light Flantastic]

no since im just disproving that its impossible

[muthafunkabass]

My best friend just got back from Israel, where he got swine flu, and he was back to 100% just four days after he took the vaccine.


edit: medication i mean, obviously thx lite fantastic.


and apparently the meds were just tamaflu

[Light Flantastic]

he took a vaccine for an illness he already had

[andyneverstoppingmachine]

no since im just disproving that its impossible

i think most people meant "it seems unlikely" when they say "it isn't going to happen"

they aren't necessarily saying it logically must follow based on the evidence

[Light Flantastic]

they're making statements with no evidence

im saying they cant possibly know

im rite they wrong

[andyneverstoppingmachine]

anecdotal evidence isn't no evidence

in fact it's just as good as the evidence you gave

[Smokey D]

Cold and flu are more prevalent in colder temperatures because the virus particles survive outside of the body for longer when the temperature is low. I'm no med student so I don't know whether this also applies to swine flu.

Also, andyneverstoppingmachine, I don't think you know what anecdotal evidence means.

Although I'd hardly call it anecdotal to provide mortality statistics for countries currently in winter.

[GorgeousGabe]

It's entirely possible that swine flu could come back much stronger and kill very many people.

I wish I had gotten it on its first run so that I'd have developed an immunity

[Light Flantastic]

Although I'd hardly call it anecdotal to provide mortality statistics for countries currently in winter.
(2) Evidence, which may itself be true and verifiable, used to deduce a conclusion which does not follow from it, usually by generalizing from an insufficient amount of evidence.

[Smokey D]

Specious reasoning isn't the same as anecdotal evidence.

[Light Flantastic]

stating infection/mortality rates with no thought given towards the life and evolution of the virus is anecdotal and pretty worthless

[Aaron]

stating infection/mortality rates with no thought given towards the life and evolution of the virus is anecdotal and pretty worthless
Or like making parallels to virii from over a half a century ago with no thought given towards the life of the people being affected.

[Light Flantastic]

its viruses

and again i state that i was disproving that it was impossible there is quite a difference

[Smokey D]

stating infection/mortality rates with no thought given towards the life and evolution of the virus is anecdotal and pretty worthless

From what I could see, the argument was that cold weather and cold weather alone appears not to make the virus more deadly.

While I'm not going to rule out the potential of evolution into something more dangerous, that didn't seem to be the main thrust of the thread, or Aaron's comment.

[Aaron]

From what I could see, the argument was that cold weather and cold weather alone appears not to make the virus more deadly.

While I'm not going to rule out the potential of evolution into something more dangerous, that didn't seem to be the main thrust of the thread, or Aaron's comment.
Correct.

[Light Flantastic]

the thread just said it would come back in the fall, it was you who invented the implication of colder weather

i think the opinion of supposed experts is just that it will mutate in a few months, ie autumn

[Aaron]

Seasons define weather/time-period changes dude. It's one and the same.

It's a flu, of course it will mutate eventually. It's what they do.

[Light Flantastic]

just because i say something will happen in winter doesnt mean im implying it will happen because winter is cold

[Smokey D]

Close textual analysis of the original post and Aaron's original post seems pretty unnecessary, but I still see why it's irrelevant let alone 'anecdotal evidence' to show that winter per se has not had a huge effect on mortality rates. I highly doubt Aaron was ruling out the possibility of mutation and greater mortality.