Future of China

[Hababi]

What does the future hold for China? Will it democratize? Will it continue its huge economic growth? Will it enter into conflict with another nation? Etc.

[BassRevelation0]

It may likely democratize, but not to the extent which we think, or want it to.

China will continue its economic growth.

Conflict with another nation is unlikely. Right now, china's helping developing nations in Africa. A conflict may arise if some guerillas do not like their presence, but unlike Great Britain, China is doing positive things for the nations so they'll be looked upon favorably.

[Hababi]

It may likely democratize, but not to the extent which we think, or want it to

say what

[pppoe]

It may likely democratize, but not to the extent which we think, or want it to.

China will continue its economic growth.

Conflict with another nation is unlikely. Right now, china's helping developing nations in Africa. A conflict may arise if some guerillas do not like their presence, but unlike Great Britain, China is doing positive things for the nations so they'll be looked upon favorably.


Care to provide some evidence? I've heard only bad things about China being in Africa.

[Iskandar]

China is basically funding the Darfur genocide, so yeah.

I don't think China will become a democracy for a while yet. I don't really buy the "freer the market, the freer the people" argument.

[BassRevelation0]

Care to provide some evidence? I've heard only bad things about China being in Africa.

You must have missed the ABC special on China before the olympics (not that I expected anyone to watch it or anything).

This was the first time ive seen it reported in mainstream.
China is basically funding the Darfur genocide, so yeah.

what a narrow view.

Before everyone deems them as Godless communists, any funding of the crisis is inadvertent. China's involved in the business/infrastructure aspect, not yet the political. It doesn't take a political scientist to realize that many African governments are corrupt and will take money for themselves (china's oil deal with Sudan). Thats why they are building infrastructure for other developing nations rather than outright funding nations (like that G8 failure a few years ago).

[Iskandar]

They're propping up Omar al-Bashir's regime because it's profitable to them and any idiot can see that.

[Mr. Ron]

It WILL democratize. Its only a matter of time.

I sort of hate economics, so I can't have a informed view on their economics.

[BassRevelation0]

They're propping up Omar al-Bashir's regime because it's profitable to them and any idiot can see that.

yes any simple FoxNews viewer can see that.

[Hababi]

It WILL democratize. Its only a matter of time.


ok so what's the time frame and what will compel it?

[Mr. Ron]

ok so what's the time frame and what will compel it?

idk but odds are its going to be a long time.

[Hababi]

yes any simple FoxNews viewer can see that.

:lol: Yeesh it used to be that only I was accused of being foxnews. When Dropper gets accused of being MX Foxnews, then you know the witchhunt has gone too far :p

[Hababi]

idk but odds are its going to be a long time.

what's a long time

[Mr. Ron]

what's a long time

Maybe in the next 40-50 years?

[Iscariot]

it will continue it's economic growth and it will continue to be one of the worst places in the world to live

and in the short term the chinese will continue cheating in the olympics to get gold medals like they've done with boxing and wrestling and several other events

[BassRevelation0]

:lol: Yeesh it used to be that only I was accused of being foxnews. When Dropper gets accused of being MX Foxnews, then you know the witchhunt has gone too far :p

:lol: lololol

I am in no way accusing Dropper of being foxnews. I want to make that clear

[StreetlightRock]

Stability is key for China. Essential. The CCP have realized that it's much easier not to rely solely on coercive force to stay in power and that claiming legitimacy though (perceived) social, economic and political stability. It won't eschew coercive force, but it'll be much more responsive to threats to stability.

In security terms, this means being adopting a non aggressive stance, so if it can, it'll avoid conflict with other nations if it must. (China has rarely, if ever, taken a hardline stance on anything in International politics and has buckled plenty of times in regards to international confrontation).

Domestically, it can go two ways, either putting down threats to stability by force if it must, or, if it can, respond quickly in a positive manner. (See: it's insanely efficient response to the SARS virus in 03, vs. It's relentless pursuit of the Faulungong movement).

Economically, they'll be pushing hard for economic growth, although right now there are little to no property rights (among other things), which might have to change, lest the population get too feisty over this.

You can see here why their total control of the media is so important to them. If they keep this model up, I doubt they'll democratize anytime soon, but at the same time, it's not all bad news.

[Radiobass81]

I don't see them in democracy anytime soon, atleast not before the people have more rights.

[Iskandar]

yes any simple FoxNews viewer can see that.
When Dropper gets accused of being MX Foxnews, then you know the witchhunt has gone too far
You disappoint me, young padawan.

[TBrown87]

what's funny is that your calling Iskander of all people a FoxNews viewer.

[Iskandar]

Lol, I've never even watched Fox News.

[Smokey D]

yes any simple FoxNews viewer can see that.

It's pretty clear China is doing things inadvertently or otherwise that have an impact on conflict in Africa. It is a major arms producer and it has obstructed censure of Sudan in the UN to preserve oil flows. No doubt China also dooes good things for Africa (I recall they are a major aid donor), but it's pretty naive to bask uncritically in the magnaminity of Beijing.

As for the future of China, it'll probably democratise in the next 50 years, but we're probably going to have a lengthy period of illiberal democracy as well. The incorporation of Hong Kong I think is essential, but it depends on how well the two system one country thing can be retained.

Regarding Taiwan,there are two forces at work. Economically it will become harder and harder for Taiwan to resist the gravatational forces of the PRC's economy. Politically, however, we have seen a move closer and closer to formal independence and that more than anything will be likely to lead to conflict. The CCP depends on economic success and appealing to Chinese nationalism and an independent Taiwan thwarts the restoration of the semi mythical historical China.So long as the military balance across the Taiwan straits lies in favour of Taipei, China won't do anything but in the next 20 years this is almost certain to change. As the gap between China and the US closes over the same period, US intervention becomes less and less likely. Accordingly, the disincentive not to invade becomes less and less. In such a case, Taiwan would have to be more and more deferential to preserve the status quo. I think at some point someone's going to slip up, though.

[Aaron]

I'm hoping a bourgeois-class appear and overthrow the communist government, however it might be the Henrik Ibsen in coming out...

[Smokey D]

/The CCP is already pretty bourgeois. And of course the bourgeoisie isn't necessarily pro democracy.

[SkaRobotArmy]

my theory as developed on the spot, at this very moment.

following the olympic games, many chinese markets will open up to american products due to the huge amount of sponsorship from major american corporations. the chinese people will begin to realise just what their government is witholding from them and be dissatisfied with this. the government will eventually be forced to concede and free up their market structure.

during this time, the standard of living has been steadily rising and the chinese people demanding more and more in terms of earning a living wage. chinese products will begin a steep rise in price, thus putting an end to the huge economic boom. things will level out and they will eventually see what they have been doing to the world and clean up their act. american corporations will move to india (if the same thing hasn't already happened there) or any other neighbouring poor countries, leaving china to collapse in their absense.

timeline: indefinite

[1338 h4x0r]

According to an expert source, the future of China is

"It's not advisable to leap before you look, but that may be all you have time for."

And it says 卓尔不群 and some numbers on the back.

[Iskandar]

卓尔不群, eh.