New Hampshire Primary Thread

[Hababi]

Debate tonight on ABC, it should be by far the best debate of the season. Different format and no fringe candidates.

So, who do you think will the R and D primaries?

[Cain]

McCain, Obama.

[Against Miik!]

Dems will finish same as Iowa, minus all the the dropouts.

Republicans will finish:
1. McCain
2. Romney/Paul
3. Romney/Paul
4. Huckabee
5. Giuliani
6. Thompson

edit: scratch that. for dems, its clinton, obama, and then edwards

[Akira]

You think that the guy who took 3% of Iowa will beat Thompson?

[Hababi]

Dems will finish same as Iowa, minus all the the dropouts.

Republicans will finish:
1. McCain
2. Romney/Paul
3. Romney/Paul
4. Huckabee
5. Giuliani
6. Thompson

You think that the guy who took 3% of Iowa will beat Thompson?

Thompson has no appeal in New Hampshire. They're historically hostile to southerners and he's spent little time there.

For the Republicans, I predict:
1) McCain
2) Romney
3) Huckabee
4) Paul
5) Giuliani
6) Thompson

And Democrats:
1) Obama
2) Clinton
3) Edwards

[Akira]

That's true. They are both going to fail, so I guess it's a hard call.

[Hababi]

That's true. They are both going to fail, so I guess it's a hard call.

I've warmed up to Thompson a little bit. At first I thought he was a total tool, but he refused to sign the stupid pledge about tax raises, and there are a few other incidents of him not pandering. That being said, he seems to be disinterested in being president, and should bow out after South Carolina.

[Akira]

I don't dislike him, I just don't think he'll last much longer.

[Hababi]

I don't dislike him, I just don't think he'll last much longer.

well he's never been much of a leading man

(tepid movie joke that few will get)

[Light_Fantastic]

Looks like Hillary will come in second in NH, there is a rumor she might drop out of the race...

This video is still quite moving, if you're a Hillary supporter or not

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4097366

[guitrguy]

McCain and Obama most likely.

[ringworm]

no fringe candidates
:(

wont bother watching it then
I've warmed up to Thompson a little bit
me too, just a little

[132WalrusesInMexico]

Looks like it will be McCain and Clinton to just about everyone's surprise.

[Hababi]

snap.

The good news is that if somehow Hillary gets the nomination, the Democrats are going to lose in 08.

The bad news is that if that somehow doesn't happen, then we're stuck with Hillary Clinton as president, our democracy looks like a joke, another petty, hostile, insular crew runs things, and foreign policy decisions are made by poll numbers.

[Cain]

yeah looks like Hillary won it.

But the next two primaries will not exactly take place in the strongest territories for her, and besides, New Hampshire has a history of repudiating decisions from Iowa. Obama got most of the independent vote anyway (whereas Clinton appears to have taken the Dem establishment) which supports his traditional contention that he has the ability to unify, and the labor unions in Nevada and the 50% black population in South Carolina will likely stand by Obama, and if not Obama than Edwards before Clinton.

This will also hopefully push Obama to start talking less about the idealistic stuff and more about the nuts-and-bolts. His performance in Saturday's debate was pretty shoddy and I suspect it was precisely for that reason establishment Dems turned out for Hillary rather than Obama.

It sucks though, man. I wanted so badly for Obama to destroy Hillary.

[Win A Rabbit]

Sorry to ruin this thread, but can someone explain to me (briefly, if possible) what the purpose of the primaries is, and why they happen, and how many states they happen in?

(ignorant canadian)

[Hababi]

yeah looks like Hillary won it.

But the next two primaries will not exactly take place in the strongest territories for her, and besides, New Hampshire has a history of repudiating decisions from Iowa.

Yeah, I did wonder if that wasn't a factor. Also, the (possibly scripted) tear-up moment from a few days ago, and John Edwards' clumsy response to it. Also, Hillary's established strength in the state. And some other things that you can imagine.




This will also hopefully push Obama to start talking less about the idealistic stuff and more about the nuts-and-bolts. His performance in Saturday's debate was pretty shoddy and I suspect it was precisely for that reason establishment Dems turned out for Hillary rather than Obama.


The problem for Obama is that he's at his best when his speeches uplift, not inform.


It sucks though, man. I wanted so badly for Obama to destroy Hillary.

Yes, I would've loved a 10 point blowout.

But if it's Clinton and McCain then I'll feel glad to be a registered Republican.

[Smokey D]

The respective caucuses of the two parties (which I assume is registered party members, but I could be wrong) contest each state with the other candidates from their party. The candidate that wins the most states gets to represent that party in the presidential election.

I think it happens in all states, but only the first bunch are really important since it becomes a bit of a formality after a while.

[BridgeToSolace]

Speeches are not about information. Go to a candidate's website if you want details on their policy. Speeches are about character.

Which is why McCain failed at his speech. I know you're old, but wtf are you reading for!? Stop that!

[McP3000]

What are the current stats for the republicans? I already knew the dems.

[Light_Fantastic]

Oh Wait, the old fat rock singer was the only one who called this election...
I am listening to Obama prattle on now..

[guitrguy]

Oh Wait, the old fat rock singer was the only one who called this election...
I am listening to Obama prattle on now..

This is I why I reported you. No one here wants to see you gloat.

[McP3000]

What are the current stats for the republicans? I already knew the dems.
^^^

[Light_Fantastic]

This is I why I reported you. No one here wants to see you gloat.
I am not gloating at all. Now, it become a real and very serious presidential race.
I though Obama would beat Hillary myself...

[Smokey D]

What are the current stats for the republicans? I already knew the dems.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney came second in the Republican race with 31% compared to Mr McCain's 37%, according to ABC, and conceded defeat.

Former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister Mike Huckabee and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani came in with 11% and 9% of the vote for the Republicans, according to ABC projections.

From the BBC.

[Hababi]

Giuliani got beaten in a next-door state by an Arkansas pastor with almost no money.

He ain't gettin' the nominee.

[Smokey D]

I'm glad his 'remember 9/11' **** seems to have backfired.

[Mr. Ron]

I dread to turn my TV on.....

[guitrguy]

Guilliani is sort of an enigma to me. 9/11 and attempting to appeal to social conservative by saying he'll nominate conservative judges, seem to be all he ran on.

Ron: its ok Everybody Loves Raymond is on.

[Smokey D]

He's not even particularly conservative, from what I know. More than any of the candidates, even Hillary and Romney, Gulliani struck meas the consummate slimeball politician

[Mr. Ron]

He's not even particularly conservative, from what I know. More than any of the candidates, even Hillary and Romney, Gulliani struck meas the consummate slimeball politician

yeah pretty much everyone hates him in NYC.

[The Stig]

Hillary is just as much of a slimeball to be honest.

I really can't stand any of the candidates who have a shot at the nomination on either side...

[Mr. Ron]

Obama is a nice guy I think.

[Iskandar]

I'm all for Obama, now that the field has been narrowed down to three or four on either side. Well, I prefer Edwards actually, but I don't think he has a chance of winning.

[The Stig]

I wish that I could just secede from America to be honest. Or just go someplace else for a few years.

[Iskandar]

I wish that I could just secede from America to be honest. Or just go someplace else for a few years.Singapore.

I hear it's really libertarian. Basically minimal government.

[Smokey D]

No, Singapore is totalitarianism-lite.

But it favours property and earning money.

[The Stig]

They are economically what I like, but socially...Let's say I don't want a caning.

I'm just so fed up with a lot of things American these days. (Political junk like the primaries and the shittiest candidate pool since I've started paying attention to politics).

[Iskandar]

No, Singapore is totalitarianism-lite.

But it favours property and earning money.That was the irony.

Singapore blows.

[Smokey D]

You're not going to get any where that has the social and economic freedoms you're looking for because once the state stops repressing people (ie, opens up the social side), about half of them vote for a welfare state.

[Iskandar]

I think the welfare state increases economic freedom.

[Smokey D]

Yeah, but you know what I mean.

[Iskandar]

Yeah, but you know what I mean.Oh, yes. The right-wing definition of freedom.

[The Stig]

That's why I want to start my own microstate. It's economically and socially free, but it will have a constitution that will prevent problems that hit America (welfare state to name one).

[Light_Fantastic]

Yeah, but you know what I mean.

Hey Smokey D. Did you notice the 4 guys who predicted Clinton/McCain after the results were in??

[The Stig]

I was one of them. I think I did it when around 75% of the precincts were reporting.

[Iskandar]

That's why I want to start my own microstate. It's economically and socially free, but it will have a constitution that will prevent problems that hit America (welfare state to name one).Libertarians always want to start utopian ministates. They never go anywhere because legitimate governments object.

In fact, I'm just going to go full hog and flat-out state that libertarianism is utopianism.

[Smokey D]

Hey Smokey D. Did you notice the 4 guys who predicted Clinton/McCain after the results were in??

Um, no.

Why is it that important?

[Light_Fantastic]

Um, no.

Why is it that important?
it's not, just odd.

[McP3000]

Libertarians always want to start utopian ministates. They never go anywhere because legitimate governments object.

In fact, I'm just going to go full hog and flat-out state that libertarianism is utopianism.
Cant the same thing be said about communism and extreme socialism?

[Smokey D]

Absolutely, if not more so.

But Alex reached that conclusion about 2 months ago.

[McP3000]

Absolutely, if not more so.

But Alex reached that conclusion about 2 months ago.

ok cool

just checking